Let me be clear: I believe this UVA football team will win at least seven games this season.
That might surprise some, or seem like a crazy hot take to those who stopped paying attention after last November’s debacle at VT to close the season, but the reasons are clear. Thanks to a major financial donation, UVA aggressively attacked the transfer portal and landed the No. 18 ranked transfer class in the country. For the first time in years, the Cavaliers have real ACC-level depth and talent across the board.
Key Portal Additions Include:
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Mitchell Melton, linebacker from Ohio State, a blue-chip athlete who brings toughness and experience from one of the nation’s top programs
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Jayden Thomas, big, physical wide receiver from Notre Dame who has played in high-stakes games and brings Power Five production
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Hunter Osborne, an emerging defensive lineman from Alabama with major upside
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Chandler Morris, likely starting quarterback, formerly of TCU and North Texas, with big-game experience and mobility
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Five wins or fewer? Elliott is out.
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Seven or more? He’s earned another year.
An almost entirely rebuilt offensive line and secondary, loaded with battle-tested transfers ready to contribute now
This is the deepest and most talented roster Virginia has fielded in decades—built to win this fall.
Year Four: The Make-Or-Break Season
Head coach Tony Elliott enters year four with an 11-27 record. UVA went 5-7 last season, showing signs of life but still falling short of bowl eligibility and losing again to Virginia Tech, which has dominated the Commonwealth Cup rivalry.
Heading into 2025, expectations are crystal clear:
Six wins? That’s where it gets complicated.
The Case for Moving On at 6-6
This offseason wasn’t treated like a rebuild—it was treated like a launchpad. With donor support, UVA made real upgrades at key positions, especially in the trenches. If this roster only produces six wins, it may feel like Elliott has hit his ceiling.
The Commonwealth Cup is also a major factor. If Virginia loses to Virginia Tech again, it will mark five straight losses to the Hokies and 19 of the last 20. Rivalry games matter. So does momentum in November.
The Case for Keeping Elliott at 6-6
But, there’s another way to look at it. Six wins would be UVa’s best record under Elliott, and it would mark his first bowl appearance. That progress matters—especially if it includes a win over Virginia Tech and a strong finish.
This coaching staff built this roster. Many of the transfers came to Charlottesville specifically to play for Elliott. A firing could spark another portal exodus and undo the stability that’s just now taking hold.
And unless there’s a proven replacement waiting, starting over might set the program back rather than move it forward.
What Will Tip the Scale?
If the season ends at 6-6, expect these factors to carry weight:
✅ Was one of the six wins over Virginia Tech in the Commonwealth Cup?
✅ Were the wins over quality opponents, not just weaker teams?
✅ Did the team show growth late in the season?
✅ Do the players publicly and privately support this staff?
✅ Is there a clear upgrade available on the coaching market?
Final Thought
This is Tony Elliott’s best chance to prove he’s the guy. He has the roster. He has the resources. He has an experienced quarterback and the strongest overall depth UVA has had in years.
If Virginia wins seven or more, the answer is easy.
If they regress or stay at 5 wins, it’s time for change.
But if they land at 6-6—especially without beating Virginia Tech—the decision gets murky.
And what UVA chooses to do at that crossroads will shape the future of the program for years to come. Here’s to hoping we never find out! Go Hoos!